How win probability works
CRIX shows a win probability on live match pages. It is a statistical estimate from past matches, shown as data. It is not a forecast of what will happen and it is not advice.
What the model uses
- Before the first ball: the format, both teams' recent results, the venue and, once known, the toss decision.
- After every ball: runs, wickets lost, balls left, the target in a chase, the current and required run rate and the pre-match estimate.
- Test matches get three numbers: a win for either side and a draw.
How we check it
We replay finished matches ball by ball and compare the estimates with the results. When the model says 70%, the side in that position should win about 7 times in 10 across many matches. Each model version is checked this way before it goes live, separately for T20, ODI and Test cricket.
Limits
- It does not know who is injured, who is in form today, the pitch on the day or the weather beyond what the score shows.
- Rain-reduced matches and DLS targets are harder to estimate; numbers are less reliable after an interruption.
- Early in a match, and in leagues with few past matches in our records, the estimate stays close to the pre-match value.
- A single ball can move the number a lot in a close finish. That is expected, not an error.
- A 30% chance still happens about 3 times in 10. An upset does not mean the number was wrong.
Questions or errors
If a number looks broken, email support@cricketliveline.app with the match and the over.